In the next six months it will be subdued.
The wholesale price-based inflation surged to more than a decade high of 14.23 per cent in November, mainly due to hardening of prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum and natural gas. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for eight consecutive months beginning April. Inflation in October this year was at 12.54 per cent, while in November 2020 it was at 2.29 per cent. "The high rate of inflation in November 2021, is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas, chemicals and chemical products, food products etc as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.
India's first-ever listed new-age company, Zomato, has seen a meteoric rise in its stock price in calendar year 2023 (CY23), rising 70.75 per cent during this period as compared to 9.5 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. From being the second worst hit new-age stock in CY22, crashing 57 per cent on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the stock hit the Rs 100-mark for the first time since January 2022 in late August. The stellar run in the stock - only after PB Fintech and One97 Communications-owned Paytm, analysts say, may be coming to an end, at least for now.
Cumulatively, the eight core sectors grew by 4.2 per cent in 2017-18, lowest in the last three financial years.
The Sensex fell by 24.20 points, or 0.12 per cent, to 19,460.57, its lowest close since December 31, 2012.
Leading indicators suggest economic activity has been disrupted after demonetisation.
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The rate of price rise in the vegetable segment almost doubled to 7.47 per cent as against 3.92 per cent in September.
The eight core industries -- fertilisers, cement, steel, electricity, crude oil, coal, petroleum refinery products and natural gas -- have a combined weight of about 38 per cent in the Index of Industrial Production.
With retail inflation surprising on the upside, the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to increase the repo rate by 35-50 basis points (bps) in the review scheduled for September 28-30. According to economists, the central bank will continue to focus on bringing inflation down even though economic growth has remained sluggish. Data released by the government on Monday showed that the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased by 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in August, thus, staying above the upper tolerance limit of the central bank for all the eight months of 2022.
Analysts say RBI will cut rates because the liquidity crunch that began this time last year is still hurting the economy and also with an eye on the August industrial production numbers, which showed a contraction by 1.1 per cent -- the steepest in seven long years.
The surprise decision of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to cut oil output may cause an immediate rise in prices, delaying revision in fuel prices in India, industry sources said. The grouping of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, on Sunday decided to further cut oil output by around 1.16 million barrels. The move led to Brent rising by almost 6 per cent to $84.58 per barrel on Monday.
Brokerages expect Nifty50 companies to have cumulatively witnessed strong double-digit growth in their earnings in the first quarter of FY24 (Q1FY24). This growth in the combined earnings is expected to have been driven by banks, automakers, and oil & gas companies. Other sectors may report muted profit growth.
While the manufacturing sector grew by 13.3 per cent during the month, the performance of the mining and electricity sectors remained poor at 3.7 per cent and 4.2 per cent respectively, said the Index of Industrial Production released by the government on Wednesday.
The government has authorised economic think-tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) to collect data to be used for compilation of the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
There are some companies in the sector that have seen a decline in revenues but their performance is not sufficient to cause such a decline in industrial production data.
In what could somewhat blunt the criticism over reliability of data, particularly Index of Industrial Production, the Union government has come out with rules prescribing Rs 1,000 fine for individual and Rs 5,000 for company if they neglect furnishing information to government agencies for statistical purposes or refuse to do so.
Expressing serious concern over contraction in industrial output in November, India Inc called for immediate policy interventions, including a rate cut by RBI, to prevent job losses and boost demand.
India may end the financial year with a seven per cent GDP growth rate, as the economic deceleration is expected to continue in the third quarter, said Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission.
There is a significant amount of dispersion in the growth rates across different industries.
'The market should maintain optimism on the back of range-bound oil prices, a robust fiscal balance sheet, a better-than-expected monsoon, and moderating inflation.'
The index of industrial production, which was negative in March, was positive in April - but just barely.
Brokers said the market had its biggest weekly loss this year as Index of Industrial Production falling in March dampened investor sentiment amid worries over weakness in the economy.
Wholesale price-based inflation rose to a record high of 15.88 per cent in May on rising prices of food items and crude oil. The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation was 15.08 per cent in April and 13.11 per cent in May last year. "The high rate of inflation in May, 2022 is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, crude petroleum & natural gas, food articles, basic metals, non-food articles, chemicals & chemical products and food products etc. as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement.
IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel, HUL, M&M, Tata Steel, PowerGrid and Tech Mahindra too ended with gains on the BSE.
The information technology (IT) services industry could see value investors taking selective punts in the near future. While growth remains visible, managements across the board have been cautious or measured in their guidance and have also complained about a combination of margin pressures and high churn. The two factors are related in that employee compensation is a large component of IT costs and high churn has forced firms to hike compensation packages and also invest more in hiring, training, and retention.
Among the different products, Air conditioners and LCD's are expected to have a higher growth rate for next few years in the industry.
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India's economy grew 4.7 per cent in 2013-14, following an expansion of 4.5 per cent in 2012-13. In the fourth quarter of 2013-14, growth remained subdued at 4.6 per cent, mainly due to a decline in manufacturing and mining output.
The overall market breadth was extremely positive as 1,868 stocks advanced while 951 declined.
The automobile sector is considered a good indicator of economic health. It has a very long value chain, from primary materials, like metals, glass and plastic, to value-added high-end electronic components, specialised alloys, and software.
Reliance Industries (RIL) was the top-performing index stock on Friday (May 26) and closed the day with gains of 2.8 per cent, against a 1 per cent rise in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex during the day. RIL's performance on the bourses on Friday was, however, an exception, and the stock has struggled to beat the broader market for nearly two years now. The company's share price is currently at the same level as in September 2021, while the benchmark index is up 6 per cent in the period.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for July 2007, released on September 12, showed the manufacturing sector decelerated to a growth rate of 7.2 per cent over July 2006, after many months of double-digit growth.
Stocks of gold jewellery retailers have been able to retain their sheen in 2023 despite volatile gold prices. Kalyan Jewellers, Titan, PC Jewellers, Thangamayil Jewellery, and Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri (TBZ) have rallied 21-72 per cent so far since April as compared to a 13 per cent gain in the benchmark Sensex index. The rally gained steam on the back of gold's 6 per cen
The NSE 50-share index finally concluded at 10,417.15, up 14.90 points
Growth of capital goods at 9.6 per cent is inspiring as the investment cycle is expected to rebound in the coming months.
As temperatures soar across the country, amid searing heat wave, analysts see power demand hitting fresh record highs this year. The time, therefore, may be opportune to add related stocks on dips as higher demand boosts earnings visibility, they said. On April 18, India's electricity demand touched a new high of 216 gigawatts.
The headline for corporate profit growth has been very encouraging in the July-September quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), with the combined net profit of listed companies up by 38 per cent year-on-year. However, the earnings distribution has been very lopsided, with most of the growth coming from public-sector oil-marketing companies (OMCs), banks, non-bank lenders, automobile (auto) companies, and cement producers. By comparison, companies from information technology services, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and consumer durables were disappointed, experiencing a sharp slowdown in net sales growth and a relatively muted increase in reported net profit.
The manufacturing sector, which accounts for over 75 per cent of the index, declined by 2.4 per cent against a growth of 4.1 per cent in December 2014.
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